Sunday, June 19, 2005

Market Doubting Bolton Confirmation

Tradesports has Bolton's confirmation chances dropping fast. Down from 80% to a little less than even money.

This will be a huge embarassment to the Bush administration.

I assume a recess appointment does not count as confirmation, but a non-confirmed Bolton at the UN will be damaged goods IMHO so I don't think Bush will take that step.


Anonymous r said...

Brian..I tried to send this to you but it bounced I am putting this tidbit here...

Leslie Gelb,Council on Foreign Relations, says looks like to him that Iraqis will be used as conscripts in fight against Iran. Guess we can all ponder on why he made this statement public. Perchance Isrmerica is scaring even itself ..or Iran.

From the Boston Globe:

A former Pentagon official, journalist, and president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Leslie Gelb, a man with considerable political and military knowledge, came back from a fact-finding trip in Iraq.

In a report to the council, Gelb was scathing about America efforts to train an Iraqi army. ''If you ask any Iraqi leader, they will tell you these people can't fight. They just aren't trained. And yet we're cranking them out like rabbits." As for plans to train a 10 division Iraqi army by next year, Gelb was scathing. ''It became very apparent to me that these 10 divisions were to fight some future war against Iran. It had nothing to do, nothing to do," with taking Iraq over from the Americans and fighting the insurgents.

Americans have statistics for everything in Iraq, yet little of it reflects reality. ''The information seeps in, and you wonder" about its reliability," Gelb said. " You wonder if you really know what's going on, because essentially what you have are the statistics. It reminds me so of the Vietnam days."

6/20/2005 02:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Arminius said...

The one thing that has prevented a total US collapse in Iraq so far is that we have not had the Shia actively (=violently) against us. The Shia have played it cool because they're convinced that they will inherit Iraq. The Shia are also pro-Iran and are not likely to continue in their present stand if the US were to attack Iran (let alone use Iraqi troops to do so). Perhaps fear of Shia reaction in the Iraqi-rear is the real reason why there has been no attack on Iran so far...
I suspect, though, that sooner or later the Shia will turn actively against us and then the real bloodbath will start...

6/20/2005 03:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iran has been, and is, misdirection. The action will be against Syria. I don't believe Gelb, as I didn't believe Hersh when he predicted action against Iran by June.

6/20/2005 03:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting article in today Washington Post on how things are at states - especially with regards to arms negotiation with the Russians - now that Bolton is no longer at State.

6/20/2005 05:15:00 AM  
Anonymous Arminius said...

What about Scott Ritter's claim that military operations against Iran have, in fact, already begun?

6/20/2005 05:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


Overflights with pilotless drones are not "war". They are a violation of airspace, something Turkey, for example, does regularly over the Greek Aegean.

I'm not saying there are no hostile acts, and they will increase, as will subversion via Iranian Kurds. But an invasion using Iraqis? A long, long, long way off, and mischievous misdirection. Syria is a more llikely target.

6/20/2005 09:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

But listen, Arminius. That's just a guess of mine. I argued strenuously with friends that there would not be an invasion of Iraq on the grounds that Bush couldn't possibly be that stupid.

What I failed to calculate were the imperatives of Bush's political position. The fact, for example, that the neocon's could deny him reelection, or depose him in five seconds flat, since he is corrupt up to gills.

A blackmailable US president is a real asset.

6/20/2005 09:15:00 AM  
Blogger lukery said...

gorilla - people are reading those bolton markets incorrectly. the tradesports contract is for a bolton confirmation *by june30*.


6/20/2005 03:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bolton delays offensive to Jewish community says JINSA

6/21/2005 12:24:00 AM  
Blogger truthseeker said...

Bolton Delay Offensive to Jewish Community

6/21/2005 01:44:00 AM  

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